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FEBRUARY 13,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THE JUSTICE – The body isn't cold yet, but the politics have begun.  President Obama, despite pleas from Republicans to delay nominating a replacement until the election is over, says he will nominate one in due course, without giving a deadline.  You may be sure he'll pick one who will stir up as much trouble as possible, or provide some political cover for Obama's legacy.  Don't be surprised if Obama picks Attorney General Loretta Lynch.  That would take her out of the chain of command in regard to the Hillary FBI probe, if that's what Obama wants.  That probe is still hovering over the election, and may turn out to be decisive.

THE REACTION – The reaction to Antonin Scalia's death is one of the deepest and most heartfelt responses to the death of a Supreme Court justice in my memory.  While liberals universally opposed his judicial opinions, the fair-minded ones praised his personal qualities, his scholarship, and his brilliant writing.  Obviously, the poor-taste left-wing crowd was out with snide remarks, but the sheer force of Scalia's presence and personality overwhelmed any nastiness.   In the next few days there will be many articles about Justice Scalia.  He represented a dying breed, a true public intellectual, widely read and capable of clear, understandable English.

THE DEBATE – The Republicans debated tonight in South Carolina, which holds its GOP primary next Saturday.  It was the most combative debate thus far, with some truly ugly and divisive moments.  I don't think there was any clear winner.  Marco Rubio erased the bad impression left by his robot-like performance in the New Hampshire debate, and was just fine.  So were all the others...except Donald Trump.  He was, at times, so vicious and demeaning that I suspect he repelled a good part of the audience.  He got booed often, but that could be because the house was packed with regular party Republicans.  Right now Trump is leading in the South Carolina polls.  Don't be surprised if those polls change in a day or so due to the debate.  On balance, I don't think next Saturday's primary will change much, unless Trump runs away with it.  Although Ben Carson is polling very low, no candidate has any particular incentive to pull out at this time.  But there still is no consensus candidate to oppose Trump.  This could go all the way to the convention.

February 13, 2016       Permalink

BULLETIN:   ASSOCIATE JUSTICE ANTONIN SCALIA OF THE UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT HAS DIED – AT 5:43 P.M. ET: 

We have lost a giant defender of freedom.  The justice was the intellectual leader of the Court's conservatives.

Our side has won many of the most important cases on 5-4 votes. With Scalia gone,
the Court will operate with eight justices until a new one is nominated by the president
and confirmed by the Senate. Confirmation requires a simple majority.

Now is the time for Republicans to show some backbone. It must be made very clear
to Obama that the Senate will not confirm another Sotomayor or Kagan, two ideological
liberals. But I don’t know if that backbone exists. The president can, of course, consult with
the Senate on whom to appoint, but democracy is not Obama’s strong suit.

Or, the Senate can delay, and refuse to take up a presidential appointment until after
the November election. That would be wise.

This death was not anticipated. The ghostlike Justice Ruth was expected to unburden us
first. This is a pivotal moment in modern American history.

A personal note:

I heard Justice Scalia at Gatestone Institute about two years ago.  He was a wise and very warm man,
completely accessible, and lacking any pomp or aloofness.  He was known as a man who could be close friends with someone with whom he completely disagreed.  Indeed, he and liberal Justice Ruth Guinsburg were the closest of friends.  They and their families enjoyed opera together. 

Justice Scalia will be remembered as one of the great Supreme Court justices.

February 13, 2016       Permalink

A WARNING – AT 12:52 P.M. ET:   As we fight an election, there are people planning very bad things.  A new warning comes from the prime minister of France, and another from the Russian prime minster.   From London's Express:

Manuel Valls said he wanted to be honest with the public and tell them to expect more attacks like the ones carried out by the terror group, also known as Daesh, in France in 2015.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Saturday he said: "We are at war with terrorism; we need to be sincere with our people and we need to tell them there will be other attacks, major attacks - this is something we know for sure."

Mr Valls told a group top defense officials and diplomats that after the attacks in France the world had "entered a new era".

Russian prime minister Dimitry Medvedev told the conference there is a link between the terrorist threat and the influx of migrants to Europe.

He said: "Under (the) disguise of refugees, hundreds and thousands of extremists are infiltrating other countries.

"Sometimes these are people with different culture who would like to get benefits and do nothing. There is a real threat of the destruction of a single economic space followed by cultural space and even the very European identity."

COMMENT:  You don't usually hear Russians talking that way.  With America failing to lead, other nations are now issuing the alerts that we should be issuing.  And we still have 11 months to go of one of the most reckless and irresponsible presidencies in our history.  There is no guarantee that the president who succeeds Obama will be any better.  Indeed, matters could get worse if a Democrat is elected. 

February 13, 2016       Permalink

AND A NUDGE IN THE OTHER PARTY – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 11:31 A.M. ET:  Early polls indicate that Donald Trump will win the South Carolina primary next week, proving that he can win outside his natural constituencies in the north.

Early polls also show that Trump will be beaten by the Democratic nominee, even if it's Bernie Sanders.

The Republicans are in bad shape, an angry party willing, apparently, to make anger their platform.   I respect those who believe Trump is a talented, capable man.  He is.  But I just don't think he can go the distance.  I also don't think he's really a conservative.  Bill Kristol, of Weekly Standard, has the same concerns.  In our quote of the day he assesses the case against Trump.   

Trump can be beaten. Will he be? His opponents have focused more criticism on each other than on him, and some will continue along this path as they move on to South Carolina. Last year's overconfidence in the political class that Trump would naturally fade (and we plead guilty to this misjudgment) has mutated among some into a kind of fatalism that Trump can't be stopped.

This in turn provides an excuse for accommodation to and appeasement of him. Power attracts. Winning works. People like to be on the winning side. Politicians yearn to be on the winning side. Lobbyists make a living by being on the winning side. Donors feel satisfaction from being on the winning side. Pundits want to show they "get it" by embracing the winning side. As Trump himself understands, no one wants to be a "loser."

Well, we stand unapologetically with the New Hampshire losers. They're not perfect. Ted Cruz could appear more appealing and Marco Rubio more intimidating. John Kasich could seem less of a mushy moderate and Jeb Bush less of a blast from the past. But none is an embarrassment. We hope one or more of them defeats Trump in South Carolina and beyond. We hope for this not so we can be on the winning side, but because we're convinced that resisting the blandishments of Donald Trump is right for the party and the country.

COMMENT:  Okay, one can agree or disagree.  The Republican Party is tearing itself apart, forming, as the old expression goes, a circular firing squad.  Chris Christie's attack on Marco Rubio during the last debate was disgraceful and did enormous damage to a good man who could actually win in November.

If Trump is nominated, I'd support him.  But I don't think he's the best we can do, and I fear he will lead us to defeat.  If Hillary is the candidate, she'll destroy him in debate.  If Bernie is the candidate, he'll appear as your decent old uncle compared to the gruff New York mogul.  (Bernie, like most socialists, comes off as the gift giver.  He is not a gift giver.  He's a thief.)

February 13, 2016        Permalink

A SLIGHT NUDGE – AT 11:08 A.M. ET:  One of Obama's former intelligence officials is urging Hillary Clinton to get out of the presidential race.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) President Barack Obama's former top military intelligence official said Hillary Clinton should pull out of the presidential race while the FBI investigate her use of a private email server for official government communication while secretary of state.

Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, the retired chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency, made the call in an interview with Jake Tapper on "The Lead."

"If it were me, I would have been out the door and probably in jail," said Flynn, who decried what he said was a "lack of accountability, frankly, in a person who should have been much more responsible in her actions as the secretary of state of the United States of America."

Clinton campaign spokesman Brian Fallon later told Tapper the general's suggestion was "just silly" and pointed to similar FBI probes of former Secretary of State Colin Powell and of aides to former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

"In both of those two cases, you now have the same agency looking at their emails, personal emails, and saying that there is information that in retrospect they think should be treated as classified," Fallon said. "The exact same situation playing out in the two previous secretaries before Secretary Clinton. So I think that tells you everything about the relative seriousness of this."

When pressed by CNN, Flynn said, "I don't have any personal evidence" that Clinton or one of her staffers took material off a classified server and put it on an unclassified server.

COMMENT:  The bottom line here is that Clinton is a terrible candidate, always enveloped in one scandal or the other, and feeling that the country "owed" her the presidency.

But now the problem:  If not Clinton, who?  I don't think Americans begin to understand the implications of a Bernie Sanders presidency.  And yes, I do believe Sanders can be elected.  The Republican Party is so confused, the press so biased, that a Sanders presidency would make Obama's look like a minor opening act. 

A Clinton presidency would be awful, and dishonest.  But look at what Sanders believes.  His presidency could be fatal.

February 13,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 12,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

TODAY – Oh, may I remind you that today is actually Lincoln's Birthday.  Our readership is knowledgeable, but I wonder how many Americans think that Lincoln and Washington were both born on President's Day, and that both were immediately rushed to a department-store sale.  In fact, Lincoln was born on this day in 1809.  George Washington was actually born on February 11, 1731, according to the Julian calendar in use at the time.  However, Britain and all its colonies later adopted the Gregorian calendar, moving Washington's birthdate to February 22, 1732.   There is talk that if Hillary is elected we will adopt the Clintonian calendar, allowing us to change our birthdates to anything we wish.  There are some who favor the Obaman calendar, allowing us to be born in any country we wish.

YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP – From London's Daily Mail – Dr Kevin Curran, a senior member of the Institute of Electronic and Electrical Engineers and a computer scientist at the University of Ulster, argues cloud computing has the potential to transform artificial intelligence so robots can become far more lifelike.  Speaking to MailOnline, he said: 'It seems that when these machines do act in ways just like adults, where they can interact and talk in real-time, robots will become the perfect companion.  'We have got to ask ourselves will robots be re-purposed for companionship? Will humans become intimate with robots? The answer, I believe, is yes.  I want to be there when a robot files the first sexual harassment suit.

NO LOVING IN TEHRAN – From AP:   TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran says it is cracking down on Valentine's Day celebrations and shops engaging in them will be guilty of a crime.  Iranian news outlets reported the police directive Friday warning retailers against promoting "decadent Western culture through Valentine's Day rituals." Police informed Tehran's coffee and ice cream shops trade union to avoid any gatherings in which boys and girls exchange Valentine's Day gifts.  The annual Feb. 14 homage to romance, which tradition says is named after an early Christian martyr, has become popular in recent years in Iran and other Middle East countries.  I'm sure Michelle Obama is against coffee and ice cream also.  You see, we have so much in common with our dear, new Iranian friends.

BAMA LOVE – It's weird watching Bernie and Hillary slug it out over who loves Barack Obama more.  I mean, you'd think they were talking about Mr. Popularity.  In fact, Obama is quite unpopular.  So why the public love?  It's because each candidate is trying to win the large black vote in the upcoming South Carolina primary.  I wonder if the pandering is worth it.  Obama has delivered nothing to blacks except talk.  Why would black voters worry about which candidate loves him more?  It simply shows how distant the Democrats are from the public at large, and the degree to which the African-American vote has become the swing vote in the party's primaries.  Not a good picture to present in the general election campaign.

February 12, 2016       Permalink   

WHAT DOES BERNIE WANT? – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:   Will we ever be told by a mainstream media that never asked a serious question of Barack Obama when he first ran for president?  Or will we be given the euphemisms and labels that the mainstreamers often use to cover the actual ideas of the political left?  Phrases like "anti-war." 

David Brooks has written a superb account of what Bernie wants.  He wants an America more like northern Europe.  Dull, unimaginative northern Europe.  Not very adventurous.  Not very imaginative.  Nanny state all the way.  This is a must-read, the best summary of Bernie that I've read so far.  From Brooks, in The New York Times: 

First, Sanders would centralize power in Washington. If you radically increase the amount of money going to the Washington establishment, as Sanders would, you’re giving that establishment greater resources to control American life.

Second, Sanders would weaken the ability of members of the middle class to make choices about their own lives. He would raise taxes on the rich, but there is only so much money you can squeeze out of such a small group of people. European welfare states generally rely on a highly regressive value-added/sales tax — usually around 20 to 25 percent.

Middle classes across Europe bear a much higher tax load than the American middle class. As Austan Goolsbee, a former economic adviser to President Obama, has noted, you really can’t have a Swedish-style welfare state without a broad high tax burden. That means less spending power for most Americans, and fewer resources to choose one’s own lifestyle.

Third, Sanders would change the incentive structure for the country’s most successful people. He proposes raising the top tax rate to 52 percent. As Josh Barro noted in The Times, when you add in state, local and other taxes, top earners would be paying a combined tax rate over 73 percent. In high-tax locales like New York City and California, it would be even more.

COMMENT:  Please read the rest.  It's equally depressing.  What Bernie wants is a gray society, a society where success and achievement, ever more rare, would be resented, not praised. 

No more America.  That's what Bernie wants.  I hope, if Bernie gets the nomination, that the Republicans know how to articulate everything wrong with Bernie's new society.  Boredom should never be a national goal.

February 12, 2016       Permalink

AN "AGREEMENT" ON SYRIA – AT 9:43 A.M. ET:  Grand Admiral Kerry, our secretary of state, has negotiated some kind of agreement on the Syrian civil war, but no one is exactly sure what it is.  From The New York Times: 

MUNICH — Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, announced that they had agreed on the delivery over the next few days of desperately needed aid to besieged Syrian cities, to be followed by a “cessation of hostilities” within a week on the way to a more formal cease-fire.

“We have agreed to implement a nationwide cessation of hostilities in one week’s time,” Mr. Kerry said early Friday morning, after all-day meetings. “That is ambitious.”

“The real test is whether all the parties honor those commitments,” he said, sitting next to Mr. Lavrov, the two men doing their best to appear cooperative after weeks of trading accusations over the accelerated Russian air campaign that has given new support to the government of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad.

Oh, those Nobel Prizes wait in the wings.

If executed, the agreement, forged by the International Syria Support Group, would mark the first sustained and formally declared halt to fighting in Syria since the civil war began in 2011, early in the Arab uprisings. But even a formal cease-fire would be partial — it excludes the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, and the Nusra Front, both designated as terrorist organizations by the United Nations — and highly fragile.

COMMENT:  Whaa..?  It excludes ISIS?  That's like Japan surrendering on the USS Missouri in 1945 and declaring, "Of course, this doesn't include the Army." 

I'm not a betting man, but I'd be willing to put a symbolic bet on the notion that this will fall apart within weeks.  But hey, if it lasts more than a month, Kerry could think of running for president again.

February 12, 2016       Permalink 

MORE WARMTH FROM OUR NEW FRIENDS – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  As we fight an election campaign, Iran steps up its anti-American rhetoric while benefiting from the tens of billions we just sent them as a result of the nuclear deal.  Our negotiators are so smart.  From NBC News:

TEHRAN, Iran — If you thought anti-American sentiment in Iran had waned after the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions, you could be wrong.

Tens of thousands of Iranians marched in Tehran's Azadi Square Thursday, chanting "Death to America and Israel" and waving anti-Western placards on the 37th anniversary of the country's 1979 Islamic revolution.

Ahmad Norouzi, a nurse, wore a bandana on his head that read: "We will not allow foreign influence."

"I have a message for Obama," the 37-year-old said. "You can't do anything to us and anything you say is a lie."

Sanaz, a 22-year-old secretary, also joined the rally.

"I am happy that I was able to come here today, and as an Iranian I can put my fist in America's mouth and say Death to America," said Sanaz, who would only give one name.

There were several homages in the rally to the incident last month where 10 U.S. Navy sailors were detained by Iran's Revolutionary Guard — including a parade float.

President Hassan Rouhani gave an address, saying that Iranians will "never yield" to outside pressure.

"Our nuclear victory showed to the world that Iranians are capable of winning any battle, including diplomatic battles," Rouhani told the crowds.

COMMENT:  How inspiring.  And our nuclear agreement, even if the Iranians comply with it, gives them a route to an atomic bomb after a certain number of years.

And they still curse Obama.  When will we learn that thug regimes cannot be appeased?

And how does President Sanders sound to you?

February 12,  2016     Permalink